Blunkett bashing

I have written in the past that I found a lot of the coverage of the Blunkett/Quinn affair to be disgraceful as it was written in a childish way which clearly related to "Wow that blind bloke gets his leg over... ain that funny?"

But the revelations of him breaking the rules taking company directorships further questions his suitability to be a cabinet minister. I think on this occasion the calls for his resignation are reasonable and well-founded.

His emotional stance over the Quinn affair called into question his judgment. The latest incident is more serious as it calls into question both his judgment AND his integrity to a much greater degree.

Firstly, on judgment. He never left his ministerial home after leaving the Home Office. This almost conclusively proves that Tony Blair had promised him a speedy return to the cabinet. In such circumstances, why on earth did he jeapordise his career by taking this position that broke the ministerial code of conduct? Of course taking this job against the code is serious enough in itself.

David Blunkett has rightly been a man much admired for not letting his disability stop him reaching the very top of British politics. But I'm afraid the human flaw of greed must lead to his resignation at this juncture.

Bored to tears

Working on biography pieces on civil servants really makes a day drag.

And I've had two bank charges for going over my overdraft limit. Today's not a good day. Some interesting discussion over at politicalbetting.com, rapidly becoming one of my fave places on the web. One of these days I think I'll open an account on a spread-betting site and try and use some of the political driftwood over my desk to make myself a few quid. I'll wait till I no longer have an overdraft though!

Knackered

I'm sooo tired today. I really should stop working nights during schooldays. I only got in from work at 3:45 this morning and now I'm in the office at 8am... jebus. Working friday night too.

Oh well. At least I can't spend holiday money while at work!

One thing to note in the Tory leadership contest is that Neanderthal throwback Conway is on Question Time tonight. That should probably finally pour water on the embers of the Davis leadership bid and we can all rest easy.

I think there's something sad about the fact that we still have MPs of that kind in the modern era. They offer absolutely nothing to the poltical debate of the nation and yet he's a supposed representative of his contituents. What is it with the Davis camp. Are they trying to form a military wing of the Tory Party (territorial only of course) ? What is it with the weekend warriors thinking roughing up MPs is the way to make one warm to a wooden man as party leader? It's beyond me.

All I can say is congratulations to the local associations at Kensington, Westbury, and Sutton Coldfield for turning down Conway after he conspired to lose Shrewsbury to the most odious member of the NuLabour drones and shame on the burghers of Old Bexley and Sidcup for replacing Grocer with A Geordie bully of the worst kind.

Error on page

Seems like my musings yesterday are forever destined for the ether. Ah well they weren't that interesting anyway.

Have been working on constituency profiles and it's rather heartens the old cockles noting the ground the Tories made up in this election. A year ago I was in utter despair about the prospects of the election but we are back in the hunt in many seats where we were no-where prior to May.

In other news, Clare Short's credibility and shamelessness stretches further with her attempt to force parliament to have the final say on royal prerogative areas such as a declaration of war.

Such a plan would have a damn sight more credibility coming from anyone but a member of the Iraq war cabinet.

Why she still sees herself as the main anti-Blair crusader despite not having any political courage BEFORE the war is a mystery. Comparing her to the admirable Robin Cook shows how craven and awful she is.

If only she'd had a marginal seat like Peterborough!

Tory revivalism

Well, is it true? Could it be that the Tory party is finally going to get all its big guns oiled and trained on the enemy on the other side of the House of Commons?

David Davis stated this weekend that he would have no problem in making David Cameron his deputy leader. A very easy thing for a man who won't have to formulate a shadow cabinet to say.

It will be difficult for Cameron to design his top team because there are such a large number of names who have sat in the big seats and have a claim and an ego to satisfy. Some will be disappointed.

If he can mould a shadow cabinet including Davis/Hague/Osbourne/Fox and Rifkind without upsetting anyone he will have done a great job and made a good start in confirming himself as a potential future prime minister.

Was a good weekend. Saw the Mousetrap again. Very different cast from the last time I saw it the foreigner was much better played and my little bro never guessed whodunnit. Excellent :-)

Weekend fun

A very enjoyable weekend both political and personal. Had a really good weekend with my little bro and his girlfriend including the satisfying failure of him to guess "whodunnit" at The Mousetrap.

The other amusing part of the weekend has been reading the accusations of BBC bias coming from the Davis camp as their man fails utterly to make any inroads into David Cameron in the Tory leadership contest.

What many commentators have stated is that it seems remarkable that Davis didn't get elocution lessons if he was ever to seriously challenge for the position of Leader of the Opposition. The result is that he seems amateurish in his speeches and now seems childish in his attacks.

The reason Cameron is being latched onto is that the media like a new star. And they have (rightly I think) pin-pointed Cameron as a new star in the political firmament.

What we need now is for the top end of the Labour front bench to get a new star to take the place of one of the Straw/Blunkett/Prezza positions and we could see a real jig of the old guard.

MORI MORI

The MORI poll mentioned in today's super soaraway Sun makes further bad reading for the Davis camp. It suggests that we would be mad not to appoint David Cameron as our leader.

The editorial opinion column though is less positive for young David. It suggests he needs to tell us what his policies are and he needs to be more forthcoming.

While it is a long time until the next election he DOES need to use these hustings meetings to give us more of what a DC led party will do.

Can he get William Hague back firing heavy shells at the government benches. This is the key. He has little experience and he NEEDS experience alongside him. Osbourne/Cameron doesn't have the ammunition to take on Brown/Blair.

And so to Round 2

... Or as some rumours today would have it, the final round.

All bets are off it seems the Cameron train is careering to victory. I am very happy we have gone for DC as I expect the party to move in the direction Howard was heading but with a more appealing means of communication.

I have only met Mr Cameron the once but he didn't strike me as being "left" in any real sense and I think his politics is "mainstream Tory" but what he does have is a personable manner, an excellent public speaking tone and a certain patrician charm.

In short, I liked the guy.

I'd rather he had built up more experience before taking the job and I hope he selects a more experienced shadow cabinet. While George Osborne is his friend I would hope he has the sense to bring Malcolm Rifkind and William Hague in to two of the biggest jobs. If he insists on Osborne staying as Gordon Brown's shadow I think he's making a mistake.

Cameron will NOT beat Blair at PMQs thus he needs Hague/Clarke/Rifkind to take on Brown at budget time. My preference would be Ken but I sense we've seen the back of him.

But I expect the following

Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
Shadow Chancellor - George Osborne
Shadow Foreign Secretary - Liam Fox
Shadow Home Secretary - David Davis

I just think we'd look a hell of a lot better with

Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
Shadow Chancellor - Ken Clarke
Shadow Foreign Secretary - William Hague
Shadow Home Secretary - David Davis

So please to those that accuse me of hating David Davis... I do... but only as a leadership candidate!

The End of Ken

Ken Clarke has NOT been kicked out of this contest due to his views on Europe. I fully believe that the reason he failed to at least get to round 2 was his refusal to play a front-bench role for the Conservative Party over the last 8 years.

If course Europe is the POLICY issue that dragged him down but it is his seeming arrogance at assuming he can take no job other than the leadership which has meant many people who wish him well have turned away from him.

And so to round 2.

David Davis assures us that his slippage was due to tactical voting. I think it's more that people realise that he has not got the charisma to perform on a stage higher than his current position as shadow Home Secretary. He is a man who lacks a certain something. That something being a personality.

A stunning result for David Cameron maintains his position as favourite but Liam Fox might well build a real momentum IF David Davis slides further. I think he might well do that.

Cameron v Fox would be an interesting battle for the Tory crown.

Cameron to win.

Please

Seconds out Round One

Today's the day. Shame I'm feeling ill but I better stay in the office till it's over.

The bookies are all saying Clarke is for the bullet and bookies are not in the business of being very wrong. We shall see.

I think the most interesting number is the figure for David Davis. He needs to poll 70+ to feel good about the first round after reaching 65 confimed pledges so early.

Less than 65 and I think he might even struggle to win through to the final in Thursday's second ballot.

With Clarke and Fox so close on pledged supporters it's not impossible that they will tie for third place which would mean a second attempt at the first ballot. In that case if Davis has polled less than 64 I think he will lose some of his flakier supporters and might go out in the re-run. Therefore I have put £1 on the current ballot-topper to go out first at 35/1!

The result of the first ballot should be known at 5.20pm

Fox Hunting?

When I got into the office this morning I honestly thought that Ken was for the chop in the first round but the suspicion remains that Liam Fox might not have enough support to see off KC in the first ballot.

I think the hustings today could actually be important. I think David Davis HAS to make a forward move otherwise the momentum will be with ALL the other candidates for the post. He is a poor public speaker, he has been damaged by the suggestion that his team are behind the drugs "witch-hunt" and unless he comes up with the goods in a forum of his peers he will be finished.

Andrew Lansley coming out for Ken this weekend was a major filip for a campaign that looked to be going off the rails and I think that his odds have gone out far enough to make a cheeky few quid at 16/1 look like a good hedge.

I now win as long as Davis doesn't.

The Tories win as long as Liam Fox doesn't.

Can Cameron come clean

Apologies for the unforgivable alliteration!

Over on www.politicalbetting.co.uk we have been discussing for two days now the David Cameron drugs question.

The actual betting seems to continue to go in DC's favour, suggesting that the rumours have done him no harm, and his assured appearance on Question Time will have helped to maintain his momentum. But certain members of the party feel uneasy (including myself) feel a little uneasy about his lack of clarity on the issue.

If someone has something in their private past that they feel best hidden then a career in the public eye is the WRONG one. I really don't believe it will be a problem if it comes out that he has done any drugs at university and I don't think it should be. But if he HAS something to hide he is naive in the extreme to think it won't come out and it is highlighting his own inexperience. I don't think a naive politician would make a good Prime Minister.

Other news suggests Clark has drifted past 20/1 and my early favourite is heading out of the race.

I'm hoping that my new bandwagon doesn't break down due to his lack of candour.

Mrs T's birthday

Happy birthday to Baroness Thatcher. A fine woman of 80 years who still fills a room with her charisma even as an old lady.

Nominations close today for the leadership of a party that has failed to replace Mrs Thatcher for 15 long years.

While she polarised opinion around the country there can be no doubt that she was the most formidable politician of her generation. She moved the political goalposts and helped create a new centre-right platform which has been copied in many countries and which even Germany seems about to embrace.

But her time is gone and after her endorsement of IDS proved her political judgement had gone wonky it will be a slightly foolish candidate who seeks her handbag of approval.

The Conservative party cannot trade on the old glories of the Iron Lady and must move forward as a progressive centre-right party. This is NOT an abandonment of conservatism. We abandoned old-fashioned conservatism in 1975.

Mrs Thatcher redefined conservatism. No longer was it just protecting what we have against a tide of socialism. It was progressive and bold.

But progressive and bold is about NEW ideas rather than increasingly rightist ideology. So far there has been little in the way of new ideas from our party for a number of years. I hope the new leader, whoever he may be, will come up with something better than building prisons and chucking out asylum seekers.

So raise a glass to Baroness Thatcher. May we find a worthy replacement for her at last.

May-be a key backer?

So Theresa May has decided to back David Cameron.

As the leading woman in the party could her support add further momentum to the DC bandwagon? I suggest that it probably will.

Hustings in front of the 92 and the party right could help decide whether Liam Fox is able to break through past the first vote.

The Rifkind backing has done nothing for Clarke and I fear that his campaign will not last much longer. Clarke seems to have run out of steam as the party modernisers clamour to put money on the clear front-runner.

But it's still very early to be making the running. What does Cameron have left to get him over the finishing line?

Interestingly he's not been invited to Maggie's birthday party. Something I would suggest does him no harm in the eyes of his supporters.

Reflections

mmm. Well a week is a long time in politics and I am beginning to wonder if the Cameron surge has come too early for the nation's new favourite Old-Etonian Tory.

Just as David Davis did before him he has stormed into a stunning lead in the betting and is now a massive target for the chasing pack.

His interview in the News of the World suggested that he's a LONG way from being the decent man of the people he wants to set himself up as. Anyone who doesn't at least know who the England footy 'keeper is is going to struggle to win over old Tories like my Dad!

Davis still seems to be in front in the delared supporter race but the first ballot will be crucial. If he gets many more than the 60 votes he has then he will be set fair for the final run-off. If he does then Fox will be out and Davis will walk home. If Clarke or Cameron go out and then support the other then the Fox/Davis run-off to be the flag-bearer for the party right-wing will be potentially bloody and damaging giving the one-nation candidate a leg-up in the party's eyes.

I can't see it being Davis/Fox or Clarke/Cameron going through.

I still believe that Clarke is the only man who can actually beat Labour under Gordon Brown. Having said that he can only do that if he can carry his own party through to the election and I'm not 100% convinced he can do THAT.

BUT - The final ballot will be between someone from the one-nation and someone from the right wings of the party so the final choice won't be too difficult for me. Taking on Labour for the centre ground of British politics is the only way back to power.

Starting Gun

Well I guess that goes for both this blog and for the Tory leadership race. The candidates have until Thursday to get their papers signed and then the real arm-twisting can begin.

I'm still pinning my colours to the Ken Clarke mast but the emergence of David Cameron has been remarkable. When I met Mr Cameron last year I was quite impressed but I still believe he has nothing like the experience needed to take the fight to Gordon Brown.

Liam Fox is the man who disappoints me most. He is eloquent and talented but seems to honestly believe that the way forward is to lurch violently to the right. Such a direction could only lead the Tory party to oblivion.

The party must avoid Liam Fox at all costs.